The Hitchhikers Guide to the Israeli Elections, Pt. 3

A good elections blog explains what you already know everyone’s talking about now. A great elections blog tells you what everyone will be talking about tomorrow, and explains that*. Judging by that standard, this fine educational feature did quite well with its last installment, edifying its readers about the V15 brouhahah a full news-cycle or so before Likud embarked on a major attack about it and made it headline news in virtually every website and blog discussing the elections.

So people are still talking about it, but there’s a new twist – only it too fails to rise to the level of real scandal. The right is claiming that V15 constitutes illegal campaign funding because the One Voice (“Kol Echad”) NGO that’s coordinating the PAC received donations from the American Embassy in Tel Aviv.

Now, this is true as far as it goes. However, the devil – or salvation, for the accused left – is in the details. Prior to the calling of new elections, One Voice wasn’t in the business of calling for a change of government. It was (and is) dedicated to mobilizing public opinion in favor of the two-state solution. Before elections were called, it wasn’t calling on people to replace Netanyahu. It was calling on people to petition him as the man in charge in favor of action towards of a certain policy – one that Netanyahu professes to endorse as well, mind.

It was as such that One Voice received donations from the US government via its Tel Aviv embassy – which is fine since the two-state solution is openly a cornerstone of the US vision for the region. The last such donation was received 6 months ago – long before elections were called. Since One Voice has transformed into a partisan entity (Semi-. They don’t endorse a specific candidate, but rather call on the public to vote for any party left of Likud so that a more peace-process-oriented government can be elected), it has not received any donations from any foreign government, including the US.

All that notwithstanding, Likud has kept its slender lead in the polls, averaging precisely 25 in the 5 new polls since we last spoke. Zionist Camp, which flubbed its economic platform rollout this week (see more below), is averaging just a tad under 24. Full poll averages and calculations at the end of this dispatch.

Don’t Hide Your Stars

While Likud has been enjoying its resurgence in the polls and mostly avoiding any self-caused injuries, Zionist Camp had a pretty bad week which illustrated its embarrassing lack of an actual campaign. Early in the week it held a press conference to reveal its economic program, crafted by the party’s outsider candidate for Finance Minister, Prof. Manuel Trajtenberg.

Alongside the man himself – no big favorite among the base, not a significant draw to any part of the electorate – were the two leaders of the list, Labor’s Yitzhak Herzog and HaTnua’s Tzipi Livni. Conspicuously absent: All the hot social justice stars who placed 2-3-4 in the Labor’s primaries, long-term worker’s rights advocate (and former Labor Chairwoman) Shelly Yechimovich and two of the top 5 figures of the massive 2011 social protests, Stav Shaffir and Itzik Shmuli.

When asked as to their absence, Herzog glibly said that “they’re not here because they weren’t invited.” He totally didn’t seem to get that this does not speak well of whoever did the not-inviting.

Watch Stav Shaffir rip the right a new one in Knesset and tell me if you’d be hiding that on the campaign trail…

Don’t Join The Herd

The contender party further alienated its base by joining in the demands to disqualify MK Hanin Zoabi (of Arab-nationalist Balad and the Joint Arab List) from standing for election. Why? The usual. She’s a traitor etc, etc. Now, Zoabi does delight in seeing how close she can skirt the letter of the law without crossing it (and sometimes in bluntly ignoring it to do what’s right in her eyes, using her parliamentary immunity to get away with it).

However, painting her as a demon that simply must be exorcised from the body politic is an old obsession of the right. Just two years ago Herzog opposed the demand to bar her from running, saying “If you take out a brick, you dismantle the whole building. It’s a slippery slope.” What’s changed? Nothing significant. She’s made some very offensive statements, but nothing to compete with actually being on a ship trying to defy Israel’s blockade on Gaza – which wasn’t enough for the Supreme Court to accept her being DQ’ed by the Elections Committee last time.

What’s changed is that this time Herzog and Livni think they have to tack right to compete with Likud for the middle. I believe that is a wrong understanding of how electoral physics work. For a party in Zionist Camp’s position, what needs to be done is to clearly define itself as an alternative to the two secular centrist Parties, let alone to Likud. Joining in the rabble cries to disqualify someone whose constituency regularly reelects, just because she really pisses us off with her opinions and dares to speak them, is not the way to do that. You want the crown, you better lead and hope folks follow. Not follow the herd.

Shadow On The Right

What else? On the far edges of the Jewish right, where stated legislative goals become nigh-on impossible to distinguish from the Nazi Nuremberg laws, the former Chairman of Shas (the Sephardi-religious party) Eli Yishai, who was forced out a couple of months ago, has joined forces with the extreme right wing forces of “Power to Israel”. Together, they are finally polling above the threshold and winning 4 seats– which causes a commensurate ripple of seat losses at least halfway across the electoral map (since there are now only 116 for everyone else).

The Casino Scandal That Wasn’t

Before we go to the numbers, on Thursday Haaretz ran a blog post by veteran columnist and regular contributor Uri Misgav, saying a “very senior Japanese official” claims that Netanyahu asked the Japanese government to abolish its long-standing policy and grant his sugar-daddy, casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, a license to open one of his cash-suck factories on Japanese soil. If true, this would be textbook corruption on a vile scale.

However, within less than a day the item was taken down – but no apology was issued. It’s been reported by some that Haaretz has caved to an Adelson threat – but not one of a lawsuit. See, in addition to blowing $3 million a month on a free daily that functions as a Bibi cheering section, Adelson also holds the fate of Haaretz in his hands.

How? Well you know that print newspapers are a dying, money-losing enterprise, and an elitist paper in a small country like Haaretz doubly so. Haaretz is kept afloat by the fact that Adelson pays to print his rag at Haaretz’s printing press.

(Update: My bad. Such was the case until a year ago, when the Maariv newspaper went bankrupt and Adelson bought its printing press. [I knew this was being discussed, didn’t remember/realize it already happened.] This only makes the whole story more pathetic for Haaretz, but I apologize for the outdated info). Thanks to reader Lior Lubelsky for the heads-up.

But whatever the excuse, you don’t run that shit if you’re not prepared to defy the threats you know will come from the relevant parties. That is just not professional conduct. I actually believe it happened, but that’s not the point.

Finally, just to remind everyone what kind of person is at Israel’s helm: Bibi has announced that in an unprecedented move for a major (ruling!) party, Likud will not present an actual platform (the document that states what the party intends to do with the voter’s mandate). Why? “Because the media will use it to attack us”. Trust me, I’ll take care of you – but I can’t tell you how or my opponents will have a field day. Democracy, everyone! Big hand!

OK, polls** (average of the 5 new ones):

Likud 25, Zionist Camp 23, Jewish Home (hard right) 13, Joint Arabs 12, Yesh Atid+Kulanu (Jewish secular centrist parties) 19, Shas (Sephardic religious) 7, Torah Jewry (Ashkenazi religious) 7, Meretz 5, Yachad (nazi-like right wing) 4, Israel Beiteinu (right wing pretending to be center, embroiled in huge corruption case) 5

In bloc math it stands thus: Right wing 42, left wing 40 (with the Arabs in a blocking formation against Bibi), 38 up for grabs strewn in between. 61 needed to form a coalition, and in reality you want it more stable than that. Upon a closer look the left is in worse shape because Kulanu (8 seats as things stand now) and Israel Beiteinu (5) are considered to be more likely to cut a deal with Bibi than with Herzog. Shas (7) has actually announced this week it won’t sit in a “left-wing government” but as they like to say on Game of Thrones – Words are wind.

But there are 5.5 weeks left and much can change. I will do my best to keep you updated as it unfolds. Until then, thank you for reading. Please share and comment.

 

* Yes, I hear you, a great elections blog would publish more than once or even twice a week, and the way to get me to do that is to comment below. If you really want me to feel obligated (and if you appreciate the content to that extent) there’s a “donate” button at the top of the page…Most obliged.

** As usual, polling data courtesy of Project61 by my twitter buddy, the nice guy with the abhorrent views Nehemia Gerhshuni