Rechavia Berman – GangstaYid

Welcome to installment number 1 of your ongoing GangstaYid Guide [TM] to Israelex number five, brough to you live with a modicum of jive from the tenements of south-east Tel Aviv.

A week after elections were announced, Israel’s political deadlock remains supposedly intact. Why supposedly? Because according to the latest polls, Netanyahu’s bloc has 57 seats (out of 120) – without outgoing PM Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, which has 4.

We have to recall that Yamina was never in the “Never Bibi” camp. Throughout the 4 election campaigns over a year and a half, Yamina was considered part of Netanyahu’s bloc, and naturally so. Only when, after the fourth round of elections, Bibi had no coalition even with Yamina on his side, did Bennett shrug and say “Yeah, I figure even me with six (shaky-ass) seats behind me as PM is better than indefinite elections.” Now that Yamina’s projected 5 votes push the right-wing bloc over the top, Bennett won’t be able to justify not going with it, even if he were so inclined – which he really isn’t. or didn’t use to be.

At stake in these elections is nothing less than the continued existence of a semblance of democracy – if only for Jews – in the State of Israel. Should Netanyahu prevail, and manage to put together a stable coalition, the campaign to dismantle what’s left of Israel’s rule of law will return with a vengeance, as will all manner of fascist – or, ironically, Bolshevik/Zhdanovist – persecution of opponents. This is no longer just inborn inclination and the nature of the populist/fascist beast. This is about his personal survival outside a prison cell.

Then again, the only hope for the defendant NOT prevailing, is a continuation of an unnatural hybrid coalition, consisting of parties who agree on precious little save the need to keep Netanyahu out of power, paralyzed insofar as meaningful reforms of the country’s ills are concerned.

At the heart of this paralysis, of course, is the problem of the occupation, which relegates any and all civilian issues to secondary importance. The “Zionist Left” is Zionist first and Left second, and doesn’t dare truly rock the boat on core issues pertaining to the occupation. For proof, look no further than the vote on extending the West Bank regulations and the general state of emergency regulations (which have been in effect continuously since the state’s founding in 1948.) Any true left would naturally vote against both of these fascist, apartheid laws. And yes, yes, of course, Meretz and Labor only voted in favor due to coalitionary obligations. They were dying to vote against. Sure. We could tell.

Anyway, the political horse race goes on regardless of this fundamental inability to shit or get off the pot, and Bennett has a novel way at his disposal to impact the race – by not running. See, if Bennett was banking on his gamble to become Prime Minister with such a coalition of opposites resulting, after the anticipated furor (he just didn’t expect all the intensity thereof) – that after that his majestic leadership would shine through, taking him back to electoral significance – that ain’t happen. His party, Yamina, is clinging to dear life in the polls with five seats and under, with the threshold at four. I’m trying hard to figure out who, precisely, those five seats-worth of voters are, who still wanna vote for this shit-show called Yamina. Maybe those are Bennett’s reward. See, Bennett, looking at the map, having already run and finished out of Knesset once before a year and a half ago – is not terribly eager to run and bear the slings and arrows of outrageous and deranged foes, whose foaming at the mouth and unhinged incitement has already put his family in real jeopardy, all just to find himself with more or less the same fools. So his best play just might be to sit this one out, deprive Bibi of the easy “Bennett the traitor” target to run against, and more importantly – more than likely ensure that Yamina won’t cross the threshold, leaving Bibi’s projected coalitionary bloc at 60 or under – just like at the start of this whole mess.

Recent polls, if you like ‘em (current number of seats in parentheses):

Likud (Bibi Netanyahu) 34 (30)

Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid, centrist, anti Bibi): 21 (17)

Religious Zionism (Jewish Nazis): 9 (6)

Kahol-Lavan (“Blue and White”. Former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz. Center-right): 8 (8)

Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Sephardic¹, pro-Bibi): 7 (9)

Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi², pro-Bibi): 7 (7)

Labor (Center-left, the sad remnants of the founders of the country): 7 (7)

Joint List (most Arab parties, running together, with the communists holding the internal majority): 6 (6)

Israel Beiteinu (Former bar bouncer and dirty as hell, lacky of Putin Avigdor Liberman, representing mostly older immigrants from the former USSR, outgoing Finance Minister but not at all as sure a bet in the Block-Bibi-bloc as some seem to think): 5 (7)

Yamina (Bennett’s party, Right-wing. More’n half religious, less than half not. Began falling apart at the seams immediately upon formation of the “change government,” and is solely responsible – forget what they tell you about the Arab lady from Meretz or the ones from the United Arab List – for the collapse thereof. Will go with Bibi if he has 61 with their votes): 4 (6)

Meretz (Leftish. Zionist over left, can be relied upon not to go with Bibi): 4 (6)

Tikva Hadasha (“New Hope” – led by Gideon Sa’ar, outgoing Minister of Justice who failed to deliver his promised “Defendant’s Law” [prohibiting anyone indicted for a felony from forming a government]. Former Likud bigwig. Left after a failed leadership bid. Fairly dependable to not go with Bibi): 4 (6)

United Arab List (“Raam” or UAL hereinafter – the Muslim Arab party, headed by Mansour Abbas, the first person to lead a real Arab party into a coalition): 4 (4)

That’s 57-57 between current coalition and opposition parties, with (current opposition but won’t sit with Bibi) the Joint List holding the balance with 6. But Yamina, despite being counted in the anti-Bibi column, will not – as I’ve already said – deny him a majority if he has one with their votes. So the truth is that Bibi currently holds a razor-slim 61-59 majority… but that’s before the shake-out if Bennett, as is seeming increasingly likely, sits this one out. Let’s see where the polls point then.

Until then, thank you for flying GangstaYid. Kindly comment below, and if you really liked it – kindly share! Thank ye, thank ye.

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¹ – Mostly Brown to Black Jews from (mostly) brown to black countries

² Paler Jews from mostly white countries