Posts Tagged ‘elections’
Shootout at the OK Gevald
Posted on: August 9, 2022
Welcome back, one and all, to another installment of the #Israelex5 Blog at the Weekend Holyland Update, brought to you live, with the style for which we strive, by Kedem Productions and GangstaYid Inc, straight from the sweltering concrete jungle of southeastern Tel Aviv.
A lot has happened since our latest dispatch, and while mine own energy levels have been suffering from the stupor-inducing summer temperatures, that hasn’t stopped events from rambling on, to include a brief performance of the annual bloodletting ritual.
As all the official babble, and much of the media coverage, has blathered the usual cliches about Israel’s right to defend itself, the right of its citizens to be free of rocket fire, and blah blah some more, perhaps a brief recap of this proactive, Israeli-instigated short shoot-up show is in order:
In the early morning hours of August 2nd, IDF forces raided the West Bank Palestinian city of Jenin (as they frequently do) and arrested several men wanted for terrorism (ditto), including one Bassam a-Saadi, an operative of the Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) who, whether it was necessary or not, was documented being dragged by attack dogs as he was arrested.
Following this, Israel claimed to have intelligence of planned reprisals attacks by the IJP, and shut down traffic in the south of the country – roads, rail, summer camps, workplaces, events, the works. People in Israel were grumbling about this seemingly craven approach, and crowned the IJP the winners of this round without firing a shot.
But although Israel is stupid, it is yet to reach that nadir. Israel was planning all along (at least since arresting a-Saadi, who may have folded instantly under questioning) to assassinate a senior IJP commander in the Gaza Strip, southern sector commander Taysir al-Jaabari, which objective it carried out at 16:16 hours on Friday, August 5th. Having preemptively made sure there would be no civilians on the road for the IJP to target with their rockets and anti-tank launchers in reprisal, Israel was free to keep hammering the Gaza Strip and making withdrawals on its target bank, to the tune of 35 casualties, of which 11 were non-combatants (IDF’s count) or 46 casualties, of which 16 were non-combatants (Gaza Health Ministry’s count). More non-combatants seem to have been killed by the 200 or so IJP rockets that fell short of Israel, within the Strip. Of the app. 1,100 that did make it across the border separating Israel from its open-air prison, 95% were reportedly intercepted by the Iron Dome system, and the rest causing only some property damage and a total of three wounded from shrapnel and some others who were treated for bruises and anxiety.
So a great success for the interim Prime Minister Yair Lapid in his first baptism by fire (well, not his personally), right? Superficially, yes. It was a well-conducted operation, as such things go, with no funerals on Israel’s side of the border, and the polls (we’ll get to them below) reflect that. But what about the long term?
Well, if you want to be an optimist, there are signs that not everything about this latest round of shootin’ down folks and blowin’ stuff up with drones was same old, same old. For one, Hamas stayed out of it. The IJP, as the distant second place movement in the Gaza Strip* can be all purist and ideological, vowing to fight to the last man with the last pipe-bomb launcher, hiding under the last pile of rubble. Hamas, as the entity in power, has to actually govern in between skirmishes with Israel, and therefore it has to somewhat listen to what its people want, and what the people in the Gaza Strip wanted this summer was a respite from skirmishing. Hell, that’s what they want most of the time. Only when Israel pushes them too far do they truly support the futile defiance of hurling metal pipes out of fireworks launchers against a country that can darken the skies over their heads with drones carrying smart bombs – basically saying “fine, but your life gonna be disrupted for a lil bit too.” This time the vast majority in the Strip, according to what I’m reading, wanted nothing of the sort. This, beyond natural fatigue with the horrors of these extended bloodletting orgies that occur once every year or two, is a product of Israel smartly focusing its recent suppression efforts on the IJP, and working quietly to drive a wedge between the two Islamist terror groups (while Hamas is the actual representative of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Palestine, IJP is a more radical Brotherhood offshoot, much closer than Hamas to global jihadi movements such as Al-Qaeda and Daesh [ISIS].)
Haaretz analyst Zvi Bar’el wrote on Sunday that it is possible that one result of Israel’s assassination of Jaabari (and his counterpart, the southern sector commander) is that younger men will be promoted to these important positions who are a) less experienced, naturally, but more importantly, b) less aligned with the organization’s political leadership, which sits in Damascus and Beirut. This prediction may be borne out by the organization’s surprisingly mild response, after the ceasefire which ended three days of one-sided ass-whooping, to a pointed question about Hamas’s refusal to join in: “There are other ways to help than fighting.” When you’ve just been stomped, you can’t afford to fight with your infinitely big brother as well, I guess.
After falling for the same trap the IJP did and braying loudly about the shameful and cowardly shut-down that preceded the op, the opposition played nice once the guns got going, and rallied behind the government during the weekend military excursion, with Netanyahu finally deigning to show up to a security briefing (it’s mandatory for him as Opposition Leader, and he’s refused to do it for a year so as not to have his cultists see him accord another man PM props). As soon as the ceasefire was declared it was back to business as usual, with all kinds of bitchmoanplainin’ about how Lapid and Defense Minister Gantz dared to be photographed doing their jobs and looking all leader-like in election time. A Bibi mouthpiece named Yaakov Bardugo tweeted stupidly that the Lapid government is leading a “stupid trend” of differentiating Hamas from the IJP. So no, dividing your enemies is actually wise. Problem is, Israel already pulled that with the PLO vs. Hamas – and didn’t use its success to actually do business with the more moderate wing of the broken wishbone. So why should we expect any different in Gaza?
Meanwhile, since the media must have its heroes after a shoot-up, even one that’s really fish in a barrel[1], the “hero” dujour is an IDF shero, who bragged to the media about shooting an unarmed man descending an IJP guard tower on the other side of the border – just shot him, for no reason, no threat, no action, no nothing. But it was open season, so it’s somehow cool. It’s a shite state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and all the fresh wounds in the world aren’t gonna change that.
So much for the shootin’. You can take a breath, a sip, a toke or whatever before continuing to the intra-Jewish politics below.
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[1] (if Hamas is like David compared to Israel’s Goliath, the IJP is David’s addle-brained baby brother who can barely grasp a sling, let alone use it)
Pretty Boy Fails To Revive Flagging Zionist Spirit
There’s a new alliance in town, and according to initial polls, its seemed to actually be doing its job and dragging the corpse of Yamina across the electoral threshold in the polls. But recall Ran Shimoni’s point – no union of existing actors ever exceeded its initial polling, which means there’s every chance in the world that even with Yoaz Hendel’s “Derech Eretz” party, Yamina will still fall short of the goal line. More recent polls indeed have the new bloc, titled “Zionist Spirit” polling at about 2.6% – far short of the 3.5% of the vote needed.
Who’s Yoaz Hendel, you ask? He’s a dashingly handsome naval commando alum, grew up with a knit skullcap but took it off in his youth. Worked for Bibi’s PM’s Office and resigned in protest when Bibi flouted the court ruling, that said his chief of staff Nathan Eshel, who was caught practicing the sexual offense known as upskirt photography, should be banned from public service. Eshel officially resigned but remained as an unofficial advisor to Bibi and a heavyweight power in “court,” and Hendel correctly said “Fuck that.”
But since this display of fine moral spine, Hendel’s conscience has proved far more limber in terms of political loyalty. His adventures in electoral politics began when he and the Frack to his Frick, Zvi Hauser (who likewise quit Bibi’s inner circle due to Upskirtgate) joined their new and untested “Derech Eretz” party to former IDF Chief Moshe ‘Bogie’ Ya’alon, who also formed a new party called Telem, ahead of the 2019 elections (the first of the current neverending cycle of them. There was one in ’19, two in ’20, one in ’21, and the upcomin’ scheduled for November 1st, 2022.)
Along with Ya’alon and Telem, Hendel and Hauser then joined forces with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Benny Gantz’s “Hosen L’Israel” and another former IDF Chief named Gabi Ashkenazi, to form Kachol-Lavan (“Blue and White”) – a brand now left in the exclusive control of Gantz. This alliance vied for electoral supremacy with Bibi’s Likud with considerable success, only breaking up in the third elections (late 2020) when Gantz stabbed his partners and voters in the back and joined Bibi with about half of the unified list’s MK’s – Hendel and Hauser among them, despite their leader, Ya’alon, going the other way.
Then the two jumped ship again and joined Gideon Saar’s New Hope (“Tikva Hadasha”), and now they’re fleeing that host (which united with Gantz, who they already burned and who carries a grudge) and latching on to the dying cadaver of Yamina, which for the first time in all its iterations over the past decade or so, does not have a single religious person in a realistic spot on the list. They’re keeping the 3rd spot open for outgoing Religious Affairs Minister, Matan Kahane – but he already spurned the offer in such disdainful terms, I can’t see him swallowing it and reneging.
Which brings us to another desertion from the listing ship of New Hope, which as the mindful reader may recall, united with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White to form the third largest bloc in Knesset, with 14 seats in the current Knesset and 11-14 in the polls for the next. MK Michal Shir, a long-time ally and follower of New Hope Chairman Saar, announced that she is taking her seat and MK’s funding unit and going over to Lapid’s Yesh Atid. Her reason, btw, is quite hilarious. “Benny Gantz is a socialist leftist” (‘scuse me, as Jimi said, while I fix to die laughin, cause Benny the Goose Boy is about as socialist as Milton Friedman; carry on) and some more shade about how he isn’t fit to be PM (which is what he is explicitly aiming for, and not unrealistically as things are shaking out) and how Yesh Atid “reminds her of the old-school Likud” (i.e. before it was taken over by thugs and religios and Judonazis).
On the left, Zehava Galon did indeed come back to stand for leadership (as predicted by this fine and friendly family feature) and save the day, and the polls give Meretz under her leadership a whole seat more than under dumbass IDF he-man Yair “Being called a lefty is like being called the N-word” Golan. I’ll be shocked if he comes close to beating her. By close I mean 40%.
The upshot of all this is, according to the polls, that if Yamina does indeed clear the bar and get in with 4 seats, or even 3[2], Bibi will have his parliamentary majority, with Judonazis as his senior partner.
Bibi Didn’t Know!
In other news: The defendant Benjamin Netanyahu was under questioning again, this time not as a defendant but under implicit warning. This questioning took place in connection with the Meron Festival disaster, where 45 pilgrims were crushed to death in a stampede in April 2021 due to overcrowding, a shoddily constructed stand collapsing, and a lack of regulation and oversight undergirding both those factors. Bibi was PM at the time and despite the panel of the inquiry commission showing him more and more instances of communications to him on the subject over the years (this is an annual event that just keeps getting bigger), he kept insisting that he never saw them, that this is low-level stuff that simply doesn’t reach the actual PM’s actual eyes. Thus, even when presented with “The PM’s response to the State’s Comptroller Report,” which mentioned conditions at Meron being ripe for calamity, he insisted that “it’s called the PM’s answer, but in practice it’s written by someone in the office. I didn’t see it.”
What did he see? COVID-related stuff! As there was, somehow, no epidemiological disaster at the festival – it somehow didn’t become a super-spreader event – Netanyahu took a victory lap. And the 45 dead? That’s somebody else’s department, see.
And as us Jews continue our interminable petty squabbles about the precise flavor of the regime of Jewish supremacism in this land, we have (in addition to the spree of carnage in Gaza) continued killing Palestinians in the occupied territories at the clip of 2-3 per week (most recently: An elderly, unarmed mental patient and a 15 year-old boy), and our Supreme Court overturned its own ruling from two years ago, and in an expanded panel ruled that private Palestinian land, stolen for the purposes of creating a settlement outpost that’s illegal even under Israeli laws, does not have to be returned to its owners if settlers are already living on it, because said court ruled that the land was stolen “in good faith” (i.e. the thieves didn’t know it was private property, and thought it was merely public Palestinian land they were appropriating in the name of God’s master race.) The court did pay lip service about how future cases will be held to a high bar of “good faith,” but this one the gonifs get away with.
Post bloodletting polls:
Likud 33 (-2)
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 23 (+2)
JudoNazis 11 (+1)
Blue&White / New Hope (Gantz & Sa’ar) 12 (-)
Shas (Sephardic Ultra Orthodox) 8 (-)
United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi UO) 7 (-)
Joint List (most Arab parties) 6 (-)
Israel Beiteinu (Finance Minister and crook and possible Russian spy Avigdor Liberman) 5 (-)
Labor 5 (-1)
Meretz 4 (-1)
United Arab List (Islamists, were in the last coalition) 4 (-)
Zionist Spirit: Does not make it in 2/3 polls.
Blocs: Bibi Yay 59, Bibi Nay 51, Arabs in the Middle 10
So much for this long-delayed installment, which all you good patrons of this fine and friendly family feature have been patiently awaiting. Don’t forget to tip (be it in the form of dineros or comments, or a share on your preferred public media) on the way out. Till the next time.
[2] Mathematically possible but practically not really
Welcome back to the GangstaYid Guide to Israelex5, brought to you live and with fond hopes to survive (unworthy government, global climate collapse, my own foibles, the vagaries of fate…). Yes, you finally made it to the juicy stuff – the desperate cupidity of Israel’s temporarily distressed God-Emperor and his bubbly-lovin’ missus. The final big story in the past week, as promised, was explosive testimony in Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal corruption case – aka Case 1000, or “The Gifts Case”.
The gist: Netanyahu is accused of receiving regular gifts of high end luxury items (ranging from Cohiba 56 [NOT 54!] cigars and pink champagne, through jewelry and designer clothing and accessories in the 4-5 dollar-figure range, up to free use of a fully stocked villa, conveniently located right next to their own and purchased at their instruction. By whom? James Packer, Australian billionaire and one-time boyfriend of Mariah Carey, who bought the villa and some of the other stuff; and by Arnon Milchan, an Israeli billionaire, who was on the hook for most of the bubbly and Cubanos, and who actually introduced Packer to Bibi as a way to lighten his own financial burden associated with the cultivation of a native potentate. While Packer (an apparently unstable person who developed an obsession with Jews, Israel, and Netanyahu as a sort of second coming, and also provided Netanyahu Jr. free use of his NYC luxury suite) was mostly a sap in all this, Milchan got material rewards, like Netanyahu intervening for him with U.S. immigration authorities (his 10-year visa renewal was being held up on some suspicion of shenanigans or other) and business/tax affairs in Israel.
Netanyahu’s defense (which has no legs. 1000 is the most open and shut case of the three against him) is that the Milchans were dear personal friends of his and Sara’le, and you’re allowed to receive gifts from friends. So to break this down:
- No, not when you’re PM you’re not. Not in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. This is spelled out by law and was made abundantly clear to Netanyahu after the end of his 1st term as PM (1996-1999,) when he likewise got in trouble for receiving… “emoluments,” to put it in Yankee terms. He was let off back then under the erroneous assumption that his political career was over and it wouldn’t be relevant again. Oh, my sweet summer child…
- Yeah, “friends” don’t send their “friends” regular orders for refills like I do with my weed dealer. Friends are allowed to see each other without bringing an expensive gift. The explosive witness, one Hadas Klein (Personal assistant to Milchan and in part concurrently Packer’s rep in Israel, who personally attended to the regular delivery of the “gifts”,) testified that “there was no such thing as meeting them and not bringing something.”) I might add that I’m more polite with my telegrass dude than these schmucks were with their “friends.” Friends also reciprocate. Klein testified that the most the Netanyahus reciprocated was a cheap watch and something or other from the low-cost toy store chain “for the kids.” Now, the defense countered this with a photo of Amanda Milchan, standing with Sara like good friends, wearing some necklace. The defense claimed that this necklace was bought by the Netanyahus. Now a picture may be worth a thousand words, but in this context? A receipt would be worth a thousand pics. Just sayin’.
- This one’s hilarious. So as the demands for cee-gars, bubbly, and the occasional anniversary bling (yes, Netanyahu had another man buy his anniversary gifts for him…) got more regular, and piled up to the point where Klein was beginning to wonder if she was doing something improper, and Milchan (“a frugal man” as Klein was forced to concede on the stand) ordered Klein to tally up “what the Netanyahus are costing him”, the Nut-and-yahoos attempted to allay Klein’s concern by saying “we got a legal opinion that says that if it’s not an apartment, it’s allowed” (lie, but it gets better.) Remember I said “use of a fully stocked villa”? Netanyahu sees that he has this wide-eyed, star-struck man-child with billions to his name who worships him without question. So he has Packer buy the villa adjacent to Bibi’s own in Caesarea – and since Packer is not in Israel all that often, basically place it at the disposal of the Famiglia Bibi. The Bibs, the missus, and their boys treated the place as a staycation property, enjoying the run of a stocked luxury villa without having to live in it once they made a mess. They’d decamp back across the fence to their own crib, which was cleaned in the meantime on the state’s dime, and leave Packer’s place to be cleaned on Packer’s dime. So “if it’s not an apartment you’re allowed”. And if it’s a villa? Oh, he didn’t transfer it to your name so it’s ok?
Klein’s testimony, delivered calmly and without rancor (although she did get emotional and indignant once, when describing how Sara accused her of stealing something and tried to get her fired), had even some cultists expressing second thoughts. This, however, had no immediate effect in the polls, which, on aggregate, have Likud gaining a seat or two off the carcass of Yamina – but still not achieving a bloc-wide ruling majority. Then again, if they weren’t cultists they’d have woken up long ago. So even Klein’s comment, that she was afraid to tell Sara that she’s a Mizrachi Jew because then Sara “wouldn’t want to be her friend” (i.e., wouldn’t be willing to accept her as the liaison in charge of keeping the gifts coming) had little immediate impact. Maybe with three months of pounding, if the geniuses can get to pounding it.
Meretz, with military clown Yair Golan the only current candidate for leadership, is teetering on the very bring of extinction. Although it squeezes into Knesset in most polls, it does it so narrowly, that the two polls in which it doesn’t make are enough to pull it below the threshold on average. So the gevald chorus is now keening for former chairwoman Zehava Galon, who was unseated precisely for lack of the star power and charisma needed to lift the party out of perpetual fear for its electoral life. Since leaving Knesset she has rediscovered a clear lefty fire in her voice (and popularity as a witty tweeter) that was less evident in the compromise-filled life of an actual legislator, and the feeling is she could do a better job in rallying the party faithful than the dude in uniform. Chicks may dig the uniform, but less so in our camp.
Nearing the end, as Haaretz reporter @Ran_Shimoni points out, virtually never in Israeli political history has a pre-election merger of parties exceeded its initial post-merger polling, so the challenge facing the hybrid Blue Hope/New-and-White1 list is to maintain 14, and even that seems to be a challenge, as their standard-bearer Benny Gantz made no impression whatsoever during Biden’s visit, save being caught on camera trying to open a water bottle with his teeth.
Getting there, it is worth noting that the only difference between Blue and White and New Hope, in terms of the kind of electorate they appeal to and the policies they support, is that one is led by a veteran politician who knows the ins and outs of the civilian world, and the other by an unimpressive military man who until 2 years ago had zero experience on the civilian side, and whose most notable political achievement up to this week was to betray his voters, join Netanyahu after rd. 3 of the elex, and get stabbed in the back by the same Netanyahu under a year later. His second most notable achievement was to fight tooth and nail for preposterous pension benefits for retired IDF officers. That was his main issue in the “Change Government.”
There was good news for him this week though, as alluded above – the AG has ruled that despite it being election time, Defense Minister Benny Gantz can proceed with the process, already begun prior to elections being called, of appointing the IDF’s next Chief of Staff. Likud’s back-benchers were all up in arms on the topic, warning that if the AG rules as she eventually she did, they’ll fire her first thing when they get back in power. (Israel’s AG is a supposedly non-partisan actor, not subject to automatic and acceptable replacement upon new administration.) So she did so rule, and Gantz gets to influence the only aspect of Israeli society he actually cares about.
In sort of good news for him, the two schmucks who wouldn’t let him form a coalition in Rd. 3, Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser – aka the Frick and Frack, or Itchy and Scratchy of Israeli politics – are once again shopping for an electoral home, and for lack of better options to take their sabotaging, overinflating egos on board, they’re joining up with Ayelet Shaked on the good ship Titanic… I mean Yamina.
Finally, in light of all the actual, convicted and indicted criminals running in the Likud primaries (it’s FAR from just Bibi. The fish may stink from the head but mofo been reeking for a while. Shit’s metastasized throughout), @ShragaTichover over on twitter broke a “scoop” when he “reported” that instead of a retired judge to oversee their primaries, as is customary, Likud are considering the appointment of a parole officer… Well played, my man, well played. And on that note, until the next episode – thank you for flying the Gangsta skies.
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1 Yeah, I did that on purpose. Good catch. There really is very little to tell these parties apart.
Welcome back to the Weekend Holyland Update, where we’re all about the upcomin’ Israeli e-lections number five, brought to you live and with plenty of drive from the southeastern melting pot of Tel Aviv. Today we have new revelations in the Famiglia Netanyahu’s bottomless, shameless greed, a joining of forces on the moderate right, mealymouthed whining on the left, and an empty suit in the middle, trying to grow into the position he has been methodically angling to achieve for a decade.
Starting with the most election-y news, remember how there used to be a bunch of parties bringing up the rear in the polls with the bare minimum of four seats? Well, as of this past weekend there is one fewer. “New Hope” headed by Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar (6 seats in the outgoing Knesset, 4 in recent polls), and “Blue and White” headed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz (8 seats in the outgoing, about the same in the current polls) have announced that they will be merging and running as a bloc, and explicitly declared Benny Gantz a candidate for Prime Minister. This would justify a raised eyebrow or two, what with the new party having only 14 seats in the outgoing, 3 behind PM Lapid’s Yesh Atid and 16 behind Likud (with the gap even larger in current polls). But after a year under a PM with only 6 fractious seats behind him, it sounds less outlandish. Oh, and interestingly – the new bloc did NOT vow not to sit with Netanyahu, unlike each of the constituent parties’ commitments before the last round.
What was immediately clear to me is that is that this union puts whatever is left of Yamina – outgoing PM Naftali Bennett’s party (which will be led by Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked and not Bennett, since he decided to sit this one out) – in a pretty rough spot. Let’s break the map of the Israeli right-wing down:
On the extreme right you have Religious Zionism (i.e. the Judo-Nazis), led by settlers Bezalel Smotrich (who hoarded over 150 gallons of gasoline to resist the 2005 disengagement from Gaza, but wisely chickened out of using them) and Itamar Ben Gvir (a senior Kahanist** who headed the violent hounding of murdered PM Rabin, once ripping the hood ornament from his car and boasting on national TV that “just as we got to the hood ornament, we can get to Rabin”). Yamina, whether under Bennett (a religious-lite person) or Shaked (secular) is on the complete opposite end of the right-wing spectrum, representing moderates, both religious and secular, not dyed-in-the-wool Nazis. So unless a body was severely radicalized over a year, they ain’t gonna jump ship straight from Yamina to the Nazis, nor vice-versa unless they were suddenly cured of the Nazi disease.
So what remains on the right is of course the mothership of Likud, the two Ultra-Orthodox parties (whose electorates, like that of the Nazis, are mutually exclusive with Yamina), and finally the two that just declared a joint run – whose electorates ARE fungible with that of Yamina.
So Ms. Shaked has to offer right-wing voters, who are relatively moderate and fed-up with Bibi’s corruption and Likud’s gutter populism, something that a much surer bet isn’t. Now that the new bloc refrained from declaring allegiance to the principle of “Never Bibi” – even the ones who want “Soft right that will likely sit with Netanyahu if that’s the coalition to be made” have a better option. While Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton (of the larger Blue and White part of the merger) has declared that the unified list won’t sit with Netanyahu – she ain’t calling the shots, so that’s of limited import.
What is of some horse-race import is that the post-merger polls are in, and while the new merger gets a modest bump over its combined strength in prior polls, and so does Yesh Atid, it does not look good for Bibi – and it looks really bad for Ayelet Shaked and Yamina.
(Previous in parentheses) Likud 34 (34), Yesh Atid (Lapid) 23 (21) the new merged Blue-and-White-New-Hope 14 (12 combined), Judo-Nazis 10 (10), Sephardic Ultra-Orthodox 8 (8), Ashkenazi UO 7 (7), Joint List (most Arab parties, running together as a bloc) 6 (6), Israel Beiteinu (mostly older Russian-speakers and fools who like a corrupt “strongman”) 5 (5), Labor 5 (5), United Arab List (Moderate Islamists, were in the “change coalition”) 4 (4), Meretz 4 (4). Missing cause they ain’t make the cut in the new landscape: Shaked’s Yamina, polling at around 2% (out of the required 3.5% threshold.)
Blocs according to this poll and basically all post-merger polls: Bibi’s bloc: 59. Anyone-but-Bibi Bloc: 55. Holding the key for the latter: the Joint List with 6.
Now, there’s a supposed heavyweight free-agent left unsigned in the market. And you’ll never believe it, not in a million years – It’s a general! A Former IDF Chief of Staff! Ainchy’all shocked, now? Tell the truth.
The new savior, courted by both the new merged party and Lapid’s Yesh Atid, is the umpteenth iteration of the “level-headed and devoted to the public good,” steely-eyed but warm-hearted*** military man. This one’s name is Gadi Eisenkot, predecessor to the current occupation-thug-in-chief. According to the polls, he’ll add around two seats to whoever he joins. According to one poll, if he joins the new merger under his own predecessor in the army, Benny Gantz, he’ll add a whopping three seats, and – this is the important part – one of them at the direct expense of the Likud bloc.
In other electoral news, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz has announced that he will not run to lead Meretz again (though he will likely run for a spot in the party’s list for Knesset.) This leaves MK Yair Golan, a former IDF General, as the only current contestant for the job, after former leader and Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg also said she won’t be running for the top spot this time. Golan is uniformly detested by much of the party’s base, not just for being former IDF, but for being a bumbling he-man ass who is totally out of step with the party’s sensibilities and positions on most issues.
Example? Why, he just provided one this week, and it’s a beaut. “I think being called a “lefty” (“smolan” from the Hebrew “smol” – left) is a slur. It’s like being called a n—-r.” (yes, dumbfuck said that. I know. I just don’t have enough melanin to properly give this man the side-eye that conveys “boy, if you don’t sit yo ass down and stfu…” and actually makes him do it.)
The only reason he was elected on the party’s ticket is another pathetic attempt to shore up security cred for a party that will NEVER have enough of that to people who fret about it. His only saving grace is that he’s willing to brawl with the right and punch them in the mouth – but in the name of what? Shame in being a lefty? Say it loud, boy – I’m left and I’m proud. Of course, these episodes only serve to whip up victimization frenzy on the right. “Didja hear what that white privileged lefty sombitch saaaaaiiiiiid????!!!!!!”
Way I read it, unless a REAL lefty shows up and sweeps the Meretz party faithful up in a whirlwind of conviction and enthusiasm, the only prayer Meretz has with General Golan as a standard-bearer is to join forces with Labor, as it did in round 3 of this prolonged paralysis. Problem is that previous merger yielded disappointing returns and Labor, currently sitting “pretty” at 6, so not actually on the precipice of electoral doom, ain’t eager for the match. “Been there, done that, even the t-shirt sucked” is the vibe coming from the sad vestiges of the party that built this country.
I know, the subtitle promises juicy corruption stuff – not to mention promising a Weekend Holyland Update – but life itself and a summer bug (which hatched for a week, just making me cranky and low energy, before erupting ferrealz with the sniffles and fever ‘n shit) have conspired to delay. Which is good cause that way we got the post-merger polls in time, and Horowitz’s resignation, and…. So lemme post this for the horserace followers, and then I’ll do a part 2 about the defendant’s trial and other stuff, including Joey’s Needless Holyland Adventure. Thank you for flying the Gangsta skies.
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*(marble-jawed, blue-eyed former IDF Chief, and perfect illustration of the old saying – tie a donkey to the “shin-gimel” (the guard post at the gate of a military base) and he’ll make Colonel eventually. So he stayed even longer and made alla way it to the top. Still unimpressive as a pile of warm shit.
** Meir Kahane was the original Judo-Nazi, running for Knesset in the 1980s on a platform of proposed legislation that is 1:1 the Nazi Nuremberg Laws, with just the identity of the master race changed. He was eventually banned from running for overt racism. Ben-Gvir is a long-time disciple of that scumfuck rat. How come he’s allowed to run, then? Cause people are crazy and times are strange.
*** Said donkey from footnote 1 is a bit deficient in the projecting of warmth department, so the role needs to be split.
- In: Israel | Israeli politics
- Comments Off on Weekend Holyland Update – How to Win By Not Playing
Welcome to installment number 1 of your ongoing GangstaYid Guide [TM] to Israelex number five, brough to you live with a modicum of jive from the tenements of south-east Tel Aviv.
A week after elections were announced, Israel’s political deadlock remains supposedly intact. Why supposedly? Because according to the latest polls, Netanyahu’s bloc has 57 seats (out of 120) – without outgoing PM Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, which has 4.
We have to recall that Yamina was never in the “Never Bibi” camp. Throughout the 4 election campaigns over a year and a half, Yamina was considered part of Netanyahu’s bloc, and naturally so. Only when, after the fourth round of elections, Bibi had no coalition even with Yamina on his side, did Bennett shrug and say “Yeah, I figure even me with six (shaky-ass) seats behind me as PM is better than indefinite elections.” Now that Yamina’s projected 5 votes push the right-wing bloc over the top, Bennett won’t be able to justify not going with it, even if he were so inclined – which he really isn’t. or didn’t use to be.
At stake in these elections is nothing less than the continued existence of a semblance of democracy – if only for Jews – in the State of Israel. Should Netanyahu prevail, and manage to put together a stable coalition, the campaign to dismantle what’s left of Israel’s rule of law will return with a vengeance, as will all manner of fascist – or, ironically, Bolshevik/Zhdanovist – persecution of opponents. This is no longer just inborn inclination and the nature of the populist/fascist beast. This is about his personal survival outside a prison cell.
Then again, the only hope for the defendant NOT prevailing, is a continuation of an unnatural hybrid coalition, consisting of parties who agree on precious little save the need to keep Netanyahu out of power, paralyzed insofar as meaningful reforms of the country’s ills are concerned.
At the heart of this paralysis, of course, is the problem of the occupation, which relegates any and all civilian issues to secondary importance. The “Zionist Left” is Zionist first and Left second, and doesn’t dare truly rock the boat on core issues pertaining to the occupation. For proof, look no further than the vote on extending the West Bank regulations and the general state of emergency regulations (which have been in effect continuously since the state’s founding in 1948.) Any true left would naturally vote against both of these fascist, apartheid laws. And yes, yes, of course, Meretz and Labor only voted in favor due to coalitionary obligations. They were dying to vote against. Sure. We could tell.
Anyway, the political horse race goes on regardless of this fundamental inability to shit or get off the pot, and Bennett has a novel way at his disposal to impact the race – by not running. See, if Bennett was banking on his gamble to become Prime Minister with such a coalition of opposites resulting, after the anticipated furor (he just didn’t expect all the intensity thereof) – that after that his majestic leadership would shine through, taking him back to electoral significance – that ain’t happen. His party, Yamina, is clinging to dear life in the polls with five seats and under, with the threshold at four. I’m trying hard to figure out who, precisely, those five seats-worth of voters are, who still wanna vote for this shit-show called Yamina. Maybe those are Bennett’s reward. See, Bennett, looking at the map, having already run and finished out of Knesset once before a year and a half ago – is not terribly eager to run and bear the slings and arrows of outrageous and deranged foes, whose foaming at the mouth and unhinged incitement has already put his family in real jeopardy, all just to find himself with more or less the same fools. So his best play just might be to sit this one out, deprive Bibi of the easy “Bennett the traitor” target to run against, and more importantly – more than likely ensure that Yamina won’t cross the threshold, leaving Bibi’s projected coalitionary bloc at 60 or under – just like at the start of this whole mess.
Recent polls, if you like ‘em (current number of seats in parentheses):
Likud (Bibi Netanyahu) 34 (30)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid, centrist, anti Bibi): 21 (17)
Religious Zionism (Jewish Nazis): 9 (6)
Kahol-Lavan (“Blue and White”. Former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz. Center-right): 8 (8)
Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Sephardic1, pro-Bibi): 7 (9)
Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi2, pro-Bibi): 7 (7)
Labor (Center-left, the sad remnants of the founders of the country): 7 (7)
Joint List (most Arab parties, running together, with the communists holding the internal majority): 6 (6)
Israel Beiteinu (Former bar bouncer and dirty as hell, lacky of Putin Avigdor Liberman, representing mostly older immigrants from the former USSR, outgoing Finance Minister but not at all as sure a bet in the Block-Bibi-bloc as some seem to think): 5 (7)
Yamina (Bennett’s party, Right-wing. More’n half religious, less than half not. Began falling apart at the seams immediately upon formation of the “change government,” and is solely responsible – forget what they tell you about the Arab lady from Meretz or the ones from the United Arab List – for the collapse thereof. Will go with Bibi if he has 61 with their votes): 4 (6)
Meretz (Leftish. Zionist over left, can be relied upon not to go with Bibi): 4 (6)
Tikva Hadasha (“New Hope” – led by Gideon Sa’ar, outgoing Minister of Justice who failed to deliver his promised “Defendant’s Law” [prohibiting anyone indicted for a felony from forming a government]. Former Likud bigwig. Left after a failed leadership bid. Fairly dependable to not go with Bibi): 4 (6)
United Arab List (“Raam” or UAL hereinafter – the Muslim Arab party, headed by Mansour Abbas, the first person to lead a real Arab party into a coalition): 4 (4)
That’s 57-57 between current coalition and opposition parties, with (current opposition but won’t sit with Bibi) the Joint List holding the balance with 6. But Yamina, despite being counted in the anti-Bibi column, will not – as I’ve already said – deny him a majority if he has one with their votes. So the truth is that Bibi currently holds a razor-slim 61-59 majority… but that’s before the shake-out if Bennett, as is seeming increasingly likely, sits this one out. Let’s see where the polls point then.
Until then, thank you for flying GangstaYid. Kindly comment below, and if you really liked it – kindly share! Thank ye, thank ye.
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1 – Mostly Brown to Black Jews from (mostly) brown to black countries
2 Paler Jews from mostly white countries
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