Rechavia Berman – GangstaYid

The first, and most important thing to understand about the Israeli elections just concluded this week is that, big picture-wise, they simply do not matter. Israel has consciously or subconsciously decided to miss the window of opportunity for the so-called two-state solution. Anyone who believes that Yair Lapid will truly insist on meaningful negotiations with the emasculated Mahmoud Abbas, beleaguered head of the Palestinian Authority, is suffering from a severe case of the wishful thinkies and lack of familiarity with the subject matter.

Lapid is a man who, by his own admission, puts blind trust in the judgment of the security establishment. Unlike the “Attack Iran” issue, where the security establishment presented a principled and determined opposition to the delusions of grandeur entertained by the PM and Minister of Defense, in the case of the occupation there is little to compare. The decided majority of the vectors that make up the position of the IDF and other security forces do not want to end the occupation (neither the obvious one in the West Bank or the aggressive-”passive” one in the Gaza Strip), since by now almost all of Israel’s security apparatus lives for and is geared around the maintenance of this situation. While stopping the Gaza blockade wouldn’t be a serious momentum change, withdrawing ALL troops west of the Green Line (or at least west of the security fence) would force the IDF and Border Patrol to change everything about the way they operate, from the location of bases and installations to most operating procedures. No organization is eager for such change, least of all one built on the application of force as a sole solution to any challenge.

So whether the government will be built on the triple axis of Netanyahu-Lapid-Bennet (with some table crumbs given to another party or two just to make it look more stable and inclusive) or whether Lapid insists on something Bibi refuses to give him, forcing the PM to stick with a narrow government made up solely of his “natural allies” – the orthodox of both stripes and the national religious, or in short the forces of occupation and reactionary thought – little in actual policy is expected to change. Bibi himself would have little problem taking this option and leaving the rising newcomer in the cold, but he has made himself so disagreeable to the vast majority of major international players (with all due respect to Micronesia and even the ever-cool Czech Republic) that he will not be able to survive his usual squirm routine on the international stage while beholden to such a coalition. Lapid, the man in the empty suit, becomes the invaluable camouflage for Mr. Netanyahu’s plan for the new term: More of the same.

Unlike the case of the “peace process” facade, Economically, of course, there won’t even be much need to throw sand in Lapid’s eyes. All three members of the axis are what we in Israel call “porcine capitalists”. On the one hand, Lapid’s victory does represent a showing of force by the politically amorphous tens and hundreds of thousands that made J14 the earthquake it briefly was. However, being politically amorphous, most of these didn’t empower political forces that will truly work for the stated goals of that civic uprising. Inasmuch as Lapid himself is concerned, as well as part of his top Knesset Members (such as former Shin-Bet chief and well-compensated CEO Ya’acov Perry), nothing could be further from their own economic inclinations than the radical re-distribution of publicly-held assets demanded by the protesters. When push came to shove, right at the start of the campaign, to support or resist the blatant giveaway of ILS 27b (yeah, billion), back to corporations in the form of accrued tax breaks for re-investment in Israel despite the fact that they didn’t in fact re-invest – Lapid took the (wrong) position that this (simply enforcing a very straightforward quid-pro-quo) would constitute retro-active punitive legislation. Somehow Lapid’s principles and the short-term interests of the “haves” always seem to coincide.

A word on Lapid: even the infinite space of the Internet might not suffice to compile all the evidence that Lapid is an empty suit. He regularly uses phrases and quotes in ways that illustrate that he does not understand them. Just one example for kicks – he once tried to school his readers on the Gettysburg Address, and had Lincoln talking about the “four fathers” of the United States (four-score and seven years ago, our…yup. Four fathers). And this is a man who passes in Israeli media as an expert on Americana…

His logical absurdities are a matter of legend, and his sticky, saccharine-laden life-long quest to define the essence of “What is Israeli” is a fascinating study in unselfconscious white privilege. His insistence on denying the benefit of being his father’s son to getting where he got is comical, and for all his pretense of being a straight-shooter, his campaign spent an inordinate amount of time deleting and blocking the questions of anyone who threatened to stump the new messiah. The fact that such a man controls such a large portion of the legislature (with a very empowering party rulebook he wrote himself, which basically guarantees him the top spot till 2020), is disconcerting to say the least, but is expected to provide ample hilarity nonetheless.

It is hard sometimes to explain to outsiders the degree in which the doublespeak necessary for maintaining a dual existence (pseudo-democracy west of an imaginary line, outright apartheid occupation east of it) has corrupted political discourse in Israel. This corrupting effect manifests even far away from the topic of occupation. For instance: These elections were called, several months before the end of the Knesset’s term, because Bibi couldn’t get his own cabinet and coalition to sign off on his proposed bi-annual budget. The reason for this failure by the coalition partners may seem technical at first: They couldn’t in good faith sign off on the budget because they weren’t allowed to actually see it.

So, the PM, previously thought to be coasting safely to re-election on his own terms, with a very stable coalition, suddenly has to call early elections because he wants to pass a budget so bad, he wants his partners to accept it sight-unseen, before they get to say “Um, dude, we DO have to get re-elected too.”

Happens, right? Budgets are a main source of political contention and it is only natural that they play a prominent part in the demise of ruling coalitions. Budgets are what politics is all about – the means by which the various dog packs arrange the tearing of the carcass of public resources.

What is unnatural is that this played very little part in the campaign. There was talk about the cost of living, and big election loser Shelly Yechimovich’s vage “It Can Be Better Here” campaign, but the fact that the PM tried to force through a set of god-only-knows-what cuts on essential services, is going to elections for it and still won’t tell anybody what’s in it – that was not mentioned. (Added: Nor did the revelation of the huge national deficit – a full percent more of the GDP, and close to 50 billion shekels – rock the campaign as it should have. Then again, maybe that accounts for Lapid’s last-week surge. He did, after all, run on a “where’s the money” slogan.)

Then again, it was a very odd campaign. There was very little buzz in the streets, very few support signs hanging from porches and windows. Only in the last week was there a sense of action on the street. Israelis, although always cynical about politics, have always been equally fervent about it. Even though the voting rate has been declining for a couple of decades now, in every previous elections there was a sense of to-do throughout the campaign. Not so this time. Many will say the action was simply contained within the virtual sphere where candidates and parties spent most of their efforts. I will make so bold as to paraphrase the great Neil Gaiman and say that for all the wonders of our zeroes and ones, we are still of this world, and victories that don’t take place in the real world aren’t as real. Then again, the polling box is very real, and it has spoken for now.

So expect cosmetic change in Israel’s conduct in its occupied territories and vis-a-vis the world, and tyranny-of-the-majority application of porcine capitalism, shrouded by vast-seeming but empty project launches. Lapid and his Knesset Members and his voters all realize the dangers of becoming a true international pariah. However, Lapid is too beholden to a tough-guy style of Israeli posture to insist on, or even demand true changes in the way we approach the rest of the world. Lapid believes that all Israel needs to do is insist, and the Palestinians will relinquish their demands for East Jerusalem – just as they have accepted that there will be no significant realization of the “right of return”. The arrogance of this notion is of course telling in many ways, but it also leads us to the question “what IS Jerusalem, or East Jerusalem for that matter?”

That’s a whole ‘nother ball o’wax, but we’ll do Lapid the justice of providing his own answer to the matter: The Tower of David. Shrewd way of saying “The Old City within the walls” without being overly religious about it. It’s about the history, ya see. Twenty years ago, even 15, Israel could have kept sovereignty of the old city (with special arrangements) and every single neighborhood east of the Green Line already built at that time, had it put a willingness to relinquish all other Palestinian neighborhoods and villages in the huge area designated by Israel as “Jerusalem” on the table (and solved the other issues and finalized a deal).

Now? Not so fast. However, if Lapid is willing to say that, and say that in return for insisting on what’s within the walls he’s willing to give up places like Sheikh Jarrah, Silwan, Issawiya and others (which are also of immense historical and “heritage” value, and where settlers are forcing out residents of many years in an attempt to create a Jewish-majority circle around the walls) – that would be progress. Stopping the ethnic cleansing of the Jordan Valley would be nice, too. I still think it would be like performing CPR on a corpse, but if one is really committed to the two-state solution that would be the way to go about it. And of course, those injustices need to stop no matter which jackoff holds which very impressive title.

But they won’t. The truly decisive factor in this next Knesset is how Chief Big Torch’s 18 new Indians will behave. Some of them are excellent people, like sports and military analyst Ofer Shelach, activist Karin Elharar, Prof. Ruth Calderon and others. A few are known douchebags like the aforementioned Perry and former Student Council head Boaz Toporovsky. Most are rather unknown and the big question is how many of them will sit back and bask in the importance and benefits of a one-and-done turn on the national stage whole Bibi and Yair smoke cigars and drink whiskey as they continue to enrich the rich and drag on the farce of a peace process. Other questions to watch: How loud will the unhinged fringes of both Likud and Jewish Home be, and how vindictive will the 14 Labor MK’s be towards their failed general Shelly. Your guess is as good as mine, but when I find out I’ll let ya know.