Posts Tagged ‘Saar’
Welcome back to the Weekend Holyland Update, where we’re all about the upcomin’ Israeli e-lections number five, brought to you live and with plenty of drive from the southeastern melting pot of Tel Aviv. Today we have new revelations in the Famiglia Netanyahu’s bottomless, shameless greed, a joining of forces on the moderate right, mealymouthed whining on the left, and an empty suit in the middle, trying to grow into the position he has been methodically angling to achieve for a decade.
Starting with the most election-y news, remember how there used to be a bunch of parties bringing up the rear in the polls with the bare minimum of four seats? Well, as of this past weekend there is one fewer. “New Hope” headed by Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar (6 seats in the outgoing Knesset, 4 in recent polls), and “Blue and White” headed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz (8 seats in the outgoing, about the same in the current polls) have announced that they will be merging and running as a bloc, and explicitly declared Benny Gantz a candidate for Prime Minister. This would justify a raised eyebrow or two, what with the new party having only 14 seats in the outgoing, 3 behind PM Lapid’s Yesh Atid and 16 behind Likud (with the gap even larger in current polls). But after a year under a PM with only 6 fractious seats behind him, it sounds less outlandish. Oh, and interestingly – the new bloc did NOT vow not to sit with Netanyahu, unlike each of the constituent parties’ commitments before the last round.
What was immediately clear to me is that is that this union puts whatever is left of Yamina – outgoing PM Naftali Bennett’s party (which will be led by Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked and not Bennett, since he decided to sit this one out) – in a pretty rough spot. Let’s break the map of the Israeli right-wing down:
On the extreme right you have Religious Zionism (i.e. the Judo-Nazis), led by settlers Bezalel Smotrich (who hoarded over 150 gallons of gasoline to resist the 2005 disengagement from Gaza, but wisely chickened out of using them) and Itamar Ben Gvir (a senior Kahanist** who headed the violent hounding of murdered PM Rabin, once ripping the hood ornament from his car and boasting on national TV that “just as we got to the hood ornament, we can get to Rabin”). Yamina, whether under Bennett (a religious-lite person) or Shaked (secular) is on the complete opposite end of the right-wing spectrum, representing moderates, both religious and secular, not dyed-in-the-wool Nazis. So unless a body was severely radicalized over a year, they ain’t gonna jump ship straight from Yamina to the Nazis, nor vice-versa unless they were suddenly cured of the Nazi disease.
So what remains on the right is of course the mothership of Likud, the two Ultra-Orthodox parties (whose electorates, like that of the Nazis, are mutually exclusive with Yamina), and finally the two that just declared a joint run – whose electorates ARE fungible with that of Yamina.
So Ms. Shaked has to offer right-wing voters, who are relatively moderate and fed-up with Bibi’s corruption and Likud’s gutter populism, something that a much surer bet isn’t. Now that the new bloc refrained from declaring allegiance to the principle of “Never Bibi” – even the ones who want “Soft right that will likely sit with Netanyahu if that’s the coalition to be made” have a better option. While Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton (of the larger Blue and White part of the merger) has declared that the unified list won’t sit with Netanyahu – she ain’t calling the shots, so that’s of limited import.
What is of some horse-race import is that the post-merger polls are in, and while the new merger gets a modest bump over its combined strength in prior polls, and so does Yesh Atid, it does not look good for Bibi – and it looks really bad for Ayelet Shaked and Yamina.
(Previous in parentheses) Likud 34 (34), Yesh Atid (Lapid) 23 (21) the new merged Blue-and-White-New-Hope 14 (12 combined), Judo-Nazis 10 (10), Sephardic Ultra-Orthodox 8 (8), Ashkenazi UO 7 (7), Joint List (most Arab parties, running together as a bloc) 6 (6), Israel Beiteinu (mostly older Russian-speakers and fools who like a corrupt “strongman”) 5 (5), Labor 5 (5), United Arab List (Moderate Islamists, were in the “change coalition”) 4 (4), Meretz 4 (4). Missing cause they ain’t make the cut in the new landscape: Shaked’s Yamina, polling at around 2% (out of the required 3.5% threshold.)
Blocs according to this poll and basically all post-merger polls: Bibi’s bloc: 59. Anyone-but-Bibi Bloc: 55. Holding the key for the latter: the Joint List with 6.
Now, there’s a supposed heavyweight free-agent left unsigned in the market. And you’ll never believe it, not in a million years – It’s a general! A Former IDF Chief of Staff! Ainchy’all shocked, now? Tell the truth.
The new savior, courted by both the new merged party and Lapid’s Yesh Atid, is the umpteenth iteration of the “level-headed and devoted to the public good,” steely-eyed but warm-hearted*** military man. This one’s name is Gadi Eisenkot, predecessor to the current occupation-thug-in-chief. According to the polls, he’ll add around two seats to whoever he joins. According to one poll, if he joins the new merger under his own predecessor in the army, Benny Gantz, he’ll add a whopping three seats, and – this is the important part – one of them at the direct expense of the Likud bloc.
In other electoral news, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz has announced that he will not run to lead Meretz again (though he will likely run for a spot in the party’s list for Knesset.) This leaves MK Yair Golan, a former IDF General, as the only current contestant for the job, after former leader and Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg also said she won’t be running for the top spot this time. Golan is uniformly detested by much of the party’s base, not just for being former IDF, but for being a bumbling he-man ass who is totally out of step with the party’s sensibilities and positions on most issues.
Example? Why, he just provided one this week, and it’s a beaut. “I think being called a “lefty” (“smolan” from the Hebrew “smol” – left) is a slur. It’s like being called a n—-r.” (yes, dumbfuck said that. I know. I just don’t have enough melanin to properly give this man the side-eye that conveys “boy, if you don’t sit yo ass down and stfu…” and actually makes him do it.)
The only reason he was elected on the party’s ticket is another pathetic attempt to shore up security cred for a party that will NEVER have enough of that to people who fret about it. His only saving grace is that he’s willing to brawl with the right and punch them in the mouth – but in the name of what? Shame in being a lefty? Say it loud, boy – I’m left and I’m proud. Of course, these episodes only serve to whip up victimization frenzy on the right. “Didja hear what that white privileged lefty sombitch saaaaaiiiiiid????!!!!!!”
Way I read it, unless a REAL lefty shows up and sweeps the Meretz party faithful up in a whirlwind of conviction and enthusiasm, the only prayer Meretz has with General Golan as a standard-bearer is to join forces with Labor, as it did in round 3 of this prolonged paralysis. Problem is that previous merger yielded disappointing returns and Labor, currently sitting “pretty” at 6, so not actually on the precipice of electoral doom, ain’t eager for the match. “Been there, done that, even the t-shirt sucked” is the vibe coming from the sad vestiges of the party that built this country.
I know, the subtitle promises juicy corruption stuff – not to mention promising a Weekend Holyland Update – but life itself and a summer bug (which hatched for a week, just making me cranky and low energy, before erupting ferrealz with the sniffles and fever ‘n shit) have conspired to delay. Which is good cause that way we got the post-merger polls in time, and Horowitz’s resignation, and…. So lemme post this for the horserace followers, and then I’ll do a part 2 about the defendant’s trial and other stuff, including Joey’s Needless Holyland Adventure. Thank you for flying the Gangsta skies.
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*(marble-jawed, blue-eyed former IDF Chief, and perfect illustration of the old saying – tie a donkey to the “shin-gimel” (the guard post at the gate of a military base) and he’ll make Colonel eventually. So he stayed even longer and made alla way it to the top. Still unimpressive as a pile of warm shit.
** Meir Kahane was the original Judo-Nazi, running for Knesset in the 1980s on a platform of proposed legislation that is 1:1 the Nazi Nuremberg Laws, with just the identity of the master race changed. He was eventually banned from running for overt racism. Ben-Gvir is a long-time disciple of that scumfuck rat. How come he’s allowed to run, then? Cause people are crazy and times are strange.
*** Said donkey from footnote 1 is a bit deficient in the projecting of warmth department, so the role needs to be split.
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