Posts Tagged ‘israelex5’
Shootout at the OK Gevald
Posted on: August 9, 2022
Welcome back, one and all, to another installment of the #Israelex5 Blog at the Weekend Holyland Update, brought to you live, with the style for which we strive, by Kedem Productions and GangstaYid Inc, straight from the sweltering concrete jungle of southeastern Tel Aviv.
A lot has happened since our latest dispatch, and while mine own energy levels have been suffering from the stupor-inducing summer temperatures, that hasn’t stopped events from rambling on, to include a brief performance of the annual bloodletting ritual.
As all the official babble, and much of the media coverage, has blathered the usual cliches about Israel’s right to defend itself, the right of its citizens to be free of rocket fire, and blah blah some more, perhaps a brief recap of this proactive, Israeli-instigated short shoot-up show is in order:
In the early morning hours of August 2nd, IDF forces raided the West Bank Palestinian city of Jenin (as they frequently do) and arrested several men wanted for terrorism (ditto), including one Bassam a-Saadi, an operative of the Islamic Jihad in Palestine (IJP) who, whether it was necessary or not, was documented being dragged by attack dogs as he was arrested.
Following this, Israel claimed to have intelligence of planned reprisals attacks by the IJP, and shut down traffic in the south of the country – roads, rail, summer camps, workplaces, events, the works. People in Israel were grumbling about this seemingly craven approach, and crowned the IJP the winners of this round without firing a shot.
But although Israel is stupid, it is yet to reach that nadir. Israel was planning all along (at least since arresting a-Saadi, who may have folded instantly under questioning) to assassinate a senior IJP commander in the Gaza Strip, southern sector commander Taysir al-Jaabari, which objective it carried out at 16:16 hours on Friday, August 5th. Having preemptively made sure there would be no civilians on the road for the IJP to target with their rockets and anti-tank launchers in reprisal, Israel was free to keep hammering the Gaza Strip and making withdrawals on its target bank, to the tune of 35 casualties, of which 11 were non-combatants (IDF’s count) or 46 casualties, of which 16 were non-combatants (Gaza Health Ministry’s count). More non-combatants seem to have been killed by the 200 or so IJP rockets that fell short of Israel, within the Strip. Of the app. 1,100 that did make it across the border separating Israel from its open-air prison, 95% were reportedly intercepted by the Iron Dome system, and the rest causing only some property damage and a total of three wounded from shrapnel and some others who were treated for bruises and anxiety.
So a great success for the interim Prime Minister Yair Lapid in his first baptism by fire (well, not his personally), right? Superficially, yes. It was a well-conducted operation, as such things go, with no funerals on Israel’s side of the border, and the polls (we’ll get to them below) reflect that. But what about the long term?
Well, if you want to be an optimist, there are signs that not everything about this latest round of shootin’ down folks and blowin’ stuff up with drones was same old, same old. For one, Hamas stayed out of it. The IJP, as the distant second place movement in the Gaza Strip* can be all purist and ideological, vowing to fight to the last man with the last pipe-bomb launcher, hiding under the last pile of rubble. Hamas, as the entity in power, has to actually govern in between skirmishes with Israel, and therefore it has to somewhat listen to what its people want, and what the people in the Gaza Strip wanted this summer was a respite from skirmishing. Hell, that’s what they want most of the time. Only when Israel pushes them too far do they truly support the futile defiance of hurling metal pipes out of fireworks launchers against a country that can darken the skies over their heads with drones carrying smart bombs – basically saying “fine, but your life gonna be disrupted for a lil bit too.” This time the vast majority in the Strip, according to what I’m reading, wanted nothing of the sort. This, beyond natural fatigue with the horrors of these extended bloodletting orgies that occur once every year or two, is a product of Israel smartly focusing its recent suppression efforts on the IJP, and working quietly to drive a wedge between the two Islamist terror groups (while Hamas is the actual representative of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Palestine, IJP is a more radical Brotherhood offshoot, much closer than Hamas to global jihadi movements such as Al-Qaeda and Daesh [ISIS].)
Haaretz analyst Zvi Bar’el wrote on Sunday that it is possible that one result of Israel’s assassination of Jaabari (and his counterpart, the southern sector commander) is that younger men will be promoted to these important positions who are a) less experienced, naturally, but more importantly, b) less aligned with the organization’s political leadership, which sits in Damascus and Beirut. This prediction may be borne out by the organization’s surprisingly mild response, after the ceasefire which ended three days of one-sided ass-whooping, to a pointed question about Hamas’s refusal to join in: “There are other ways to help than fighting.” When you’ve just been stomped, you can’t afford to fight with your infinitely big brother as well, I guess.
After falling for the same trap the IJP did and braying loudly about the shameful and cowardly shut-down that preceded the op, the opposition played nice once the guns got going, and rallied behind the government during the weekend military excursion, with Netanyahu finally deigning to show up to a security briefing (it’s mandatory for him as Opposition Leader, and he’s refused to do it for a year so as not to have his cultists see him accord another man PM props). As soon as the ceasefire was declared it was back to business as usual, with all kinds of bitchmoanplainin’ about how Lapid and Defense Minister Gantz dared to be photographed doing their jobs and looking all leader-like in election time. A Bibi mouthpiece named Yaakov Bardugo tweeted stupidly that the Lapid government is leading a “stupid trend” of differentiating Hamas from the IJP. So no, dividing your enemies is actually wise. Problem is, Israel already pulled that with the PLO vs. Hamas – and didn’t use its success to actually do business with the more moderate wing of the broken wishbone. So why should we expect any different in Gaza?
Meanwhile, since the media must have its heroes after a shoot-up, even one that’s really fish in a barrel[1], the “hero” dujour is an IDF shero, who bragged to the media about shooting an unarmed man descending an IJP guard tower on the other side of the border – just shot him, for no reason, no threat, no action, no nothing. But it was open season, so it’s somehow cool. It’s a shite state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and all the fresh wounds in the world aren’t gonna change that.
So much for the shootin’. You can take a breath, a sip, a toke or whatever before continuing to the intra-Jewish politics below.
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[1] (if Hamas is like David compared to Israel’s Goliath, the IJP is David’s addle-brained baby brother who can barely grasp a sling, let alone use it)
Pretty Boy Fails To Revive Flagging Zionist Spirit
There’s a new alliance in town, and according to initial polls, its seemed to actually be doing its job and dragging the corpse of Yamina across the electoral threshold in the polls. But recall Ran Shimoni’s point – no union of existing actors ever exceeded its initial polling, which means there’s every chance in the world that even with Yoaz Hendel’s “Derech Eretz” party, Yamina will still fall short of the goal line. More recent polls indeed have the new bloc, titled “Zionist Spirit” polling at about 2.6% – far short of the 3.5% of the vote needed.
Who’s Yoaz Hendel, you ask? He’s a dashingly handsome naval commando alum, grew up with a knit skullcap but took it off in his youth. Worked for Bibi’s PM’s Office and resigned in protest when Bibi flouted the court ruling, that said his chief of staff Nathan Eshel, who was caught practicing the sexual offense known as upskirt photography, should be banned from public service. Eshel officially resigned but remained as an unofficial advisor to Bibi and a heavyweight power in “court,” and Hendel correctly said “Fuck that.”
But since this display of fine moral spine, Hendel’s conscience has proved far more limber in terms of political loyalty. His adventures in electoral politics began when he and the Frack to his Frick, Zvi Hauser (who likewise quit Bibi’s inner circle due to Upskirtgate) joined their new and untested “Derech Eretz” party to former IDF Chief Moshe ‘Bogie’ Ya’alon, who also formed a new party called Telem, ahead of the 2019 elections (the first of the current neverending cycle of them. There was one in ’19, two in ’20, one in ’21, and the upcomin’ scheduled for November 1st, 2022.)
Along with Ya’alon and Telem, Hendel and Hauser then joined forces with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Benny Gantz’s “Hosen L’Israel” and another former IDF Chief named Gabi Ashkenazi, to form Kachol-Lavan (“Blue and White”) – a brand now left in the exclusive control of Gantz. This alliance vied for electoral supremacy with Bibi’s Likud with considerable success, only breaking up in the third elections (late 2020) when Gantz stabbed his partners and voters in the back and joined Bibi with about half of the unified list’s MK’s – Hendel and Hauser among them, despite their leader, Ya’alon, going the other way.
Then the two jumped ship again and joined Gideon Saar’s New Hope (“Tikva Hadasha”), and now they’re fleeing that host (which united with Gantz, who they already burned and who carries a grudge) and latching on to the dying cadaver of Yamina, which for the first time in all its iterations over the past decade or so, does not have a single religious person in a realistic spot on the list. They’re keeping the 3rd spot open for outgoing Religious Affairs Minister, Matan Kahane – but he already spurned the offer in such disdainful terms, I can’t see him swallowing it and reneging.
Which brings us to another desertion from the listing ship of New Hope, which as the mindful reader may recall, united with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White to form the third largest bloc in Knesset, with 14 seats in the current Knesset and 11-14 in the polls for the next. MK Michal Shir, a long-time ally and follower of New Hope Chairman Saar, announced that she is taking her seat and MK’s funding unit and going over to Lapid’s Yesh Atid. Her reason, btw, is quite hilarious. “Benny Gantz is a socialist leftist” (‘scuse me, as Jimi said, while I fix to die laughin, cause Benny the Goose Boy is about as socialist as Milton Friedman; carry on) and some more shade about how he isn’t fit to be PM (which is what he is explicitly aiming for, and not unrealistically as things are shaking out) and how Yesh Atid “reminds her of the old-school Likud” (i.e. before it was taken over by thugs and religios and Judonazis).
On the left, Zehava Galon did indeed come back to stand for leadership (as predicted by this fine and friendly family feature) and save the day, and the polls give Meretz under her leadership a whole seat more than under dumbass IDF he-man Yair “Being called a lefty is like being called the N-word” Golan. I’ll be shocked if he comes close to beating her. By close I mean 40%.
The upshot of all this is, according to the polls, that if Yamina does indeed clear the bar and get in with 4 seats, or even 3[2], Bibi will have his parliamentary majority, with Judonazis as his senior partner.
Bibi Didn’t Know!
In other news: The defendant Benjamin Netanyahu was under questioning again, this time not as a defendant but under implicit warning. This questioning took place in connection with the Meron Festival disaster, where 45 pilgrims were crushed to death in a stampede in April 2021 due to overcrowding, a shoddily constructed stand collapsing, and a lack of regulation and oversight undergirding both those factors. Bibi was PM at the time and despite the panel of the inquiry commission showing him more and more instances of communications to him on the subject over the years (this is an annual event that just keeps getting bigger), he kept insisting that he never saw them, that this is low-level stuff that simply doesn’t reach the actual PM’s actual eyes. Thus, even when presented with “The PM’s response to the State’s Comptroller Report,” which mentioned conditions at Meron being ripe for calamity, he insisted that “it’s called the PM’s answer, but in practice it’s written by someone in the office. I didn’t see it.”
What did he see? COVID-related stuff! As there was, somehow, no epidemiological disaster at the festival – it somehow didn’t become a super-spreader event – Netanyahu took a victory lap. And the 45 dead? That’s somebody else’s department, see.
And as us Jews continue our interminable petty squabbles about the precise flavor of the regime of Jewish supremacism in this land, we have (in addition to the spree of carnage in Gaza) continued killing Palestinians in the occupied territories at the clip of 2-3 per week (most recently: An elderly, unarmed mental patient and a 15 year-old boy), and our Supreme Court overturned its own ruling from two years ago, and in an expanded panel ruled that private Palestinian land, stolen for the purposes of creating a settlement outpost that’s illegal even under Israeli laws, does not have to be returned to its owners if settlers are already living on it, because said court ruled that the land was stolen “in good faith” (i.e. the thieves didn’t know it was private property, and thought it was merely public Palestinian land they were appropriating in the name of God’s master race.) The court did pay lip service about how future cases will be held to a high bar of “good faith,” but this one the gonifs get away with.
Post bloodletting polls:
Likud 33 (-2)
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 23 (+2)
JudoNazis 11 (+1)
Blue&White / New Hope (Gantz & Sa’ar) 12 (-)
Shas (Sephardic Ultra Orthodox) 8 (-)
United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi UO) 7 (-)
Joint List (most Arab parties) 6 (-)
Israel Beiteinu (Finance Minister and crook and possible Russian spy Avigdor Liberman) 5 (-)
Labor 5 (-1)
Meretz 4 (-1)
United Arab List (Islamists, were in the last coalition) 4 (-)
Zionist Spirit: Does not make it in 2/3 polls.
Blocs: Bibi Yay 59, Bibi Nay 51, Arabs in the Middle 10
So much for this long-delayed installment, which all you good patrons of this fine and friendly family feature have been patiently awaiting. Don’t forget to tip (be it in the form of dineros or comments, or a share on your preferred public media) on the way out. Till the next time.
[2] Mathematically possible but practically not really
Bibi’s low-class grifting, Biden’s low-content visit, and how it all plays out in #Israelex5 – brought to you live, with an occasional deep dive, from the ironically named Neighborhood of Hope (it’s a slum. Great market though) in southeastern Tel Aviv.
U.S. President Joe Biden just completed a two-day stay in Israel (plus another in the Palestinian Authority), during which he mugged for the cameras, deftly played the complex political situation amongst his hosts, flashed the warm human charm with a couple elderly Holocaust victims, but he did not spend the same amount of time and attention – or any time – on any Palestinian victims of far more recent war crimes, violations of human rights, and the occasional ethnic cleansing.
At the airport ceremony, everything was deftly arranged so as not to provide anyone with cause for complaint during these fraught electoral times, and the esteemed guest played along to perfection. While he did share a longer moment 1-on-1 with the newly installed caretaker PM, including a jokey reminiscence (Lapid reminded Biden that some 8 years ago, when they last met, Biden told him “If I had your hair I’d be President by now,” to which Lapid replied “and if I had your height I’d be Prime Minister by now”1 – and look at them now. Aw.
So Lapid got that, but Bibi got his moment too. Despite being told that there would be no handshakes, and indeed Lapid, outgoing PM Bennett, and President2 Isaac Herzog got vigorous (dare I say spry?) fist-bumps (non-terrorist, due to the exemplary whiteness of all involved) – Bibi got a warm handshake and a smiling “You know I love you” from the Prez.
The Bibi cultists went into full augury & divination mode, explaining how this means that Biden knows who the grown-up and worthy statesman in the “room” (shit happened outdoors) is, or at the very least that he knows Bibi’s coming back in 3.5 months and is already mending fences.
Now I could be wrong, but that handshake gave me more of a Michael-to-Fredo-kiss vibe. That he said “You know I love you,” rather than “You broke my heart,” means nothing. The best revenge is celebrated with a suave demeanor, and Bibi ain’t no brother to Joseph Robinette. I can’t imagine a single alum of the Obama administration who harbors anything but contempt for Bibi, and the damage he’s done to the “unique relationship.” FWIW, veteran Haaretz political analyst Yossi Verter thinks much as I do, saying that handshake and those words ended with an implicit “but I so don’t want your ass back in power.” Anyway, so much for that.
From the airport, as per hallowed tradition, the visitor was schlepped to Yad Vashem, Israel’s national Holocaust (“and Bravery”) Museum, where every visiting dignitary is brought, so that before they even fix they mouth to talk to us about shit, they start off with the proper mindset – one of obeisance to our uniquely sacred suffering, some three-score and seventeen years ago, and counting.
At the Yad [raise your hand if you from around the way & from back in the day, so you got that ref. I kill me], Joey turned on the human touch, speaking at length and with great warmth with two Holocaust survivors out of bunch who were there to meet’n’greet him. He also signed the visitor book at length (the White House made it clear that cameras were NOT to be trained on Biden while writing his piece), and gave a lil speech where he waxed poetic about his tremendously warm feelings for us Hebes. “One need not be a Jew to be a Zionist” (No, but it tends to be creepier.) We also got to hear, again, how all this fuzzy warmth toward us was inspired by his father, who taught him about the Holocaust and told him to always be on the side of the Jews. Too bad pops didn’t make his lesson a tad more universal, say “always be on the side of justice” or “the side being done dirty.” Alas. As Reshef Shay (@rereshef) put it on twitter – aside from losing his virginity, Biden got the full Birthright experience.
The next day the President and the Prime Minister signed the “Jerusalem Statement,” in which the U.S. reaffirms its commitment to Israel’s safety as a cornerstone of its foreign policy, affirms Israel’s right to defend itself from attack (nothing about the right of various others to defend themselves from attack by Israel), and how Iran will never be allowed to acquire nukes. From there, and a tete-a-tete with Lapid (followed by a briefer one with Netanyahu, it was on to the President’s Residence for a reception, and some bonding with President Bougie about their Irish heritage (Bougie’s gramps was Chief Rabbi of Ireland, before coming here and becoming Chief Ashkenazi Rabbi of Mandatory Palestine, continuing in the same office in the young State of Israel) and boxing (Bougie’s pops, who was also President of Israel in the ‘80s, was Ireland’s junior bantamweight champion as a young lad.)
At this reception we got the stupid brouhaha of the day. There was a singing performance, by a young woman and rather famous singer named Yuval Dayan. Ms. Dayan is apparently religious, and while she does not eschew the mixing of the sexes to the point of declining a performance before a co-ed audience (many religious performers, male and female, do so), she does observe the halachic rule of “negiah”, which – to simplify – says an adult (i.e. adolescent and up) woman is not supposed to physically touch a man other than her husband or father or son. Biden didn’t know this, approached to shake her hand after the performance (as one does) – and she exercised her bodily autonomy and left the presidential hand hanging.
Now, lemme make some things clear here: Negiah is an odious stricture, a wild overreach of extending the biblical law: “None of you shall approach to any that is near of kin to him, to uncover their nakedness: I am the Lord.” The idea, obviously, is to prevent any contact that might devolve into illicit hanky-panky (including between siblings, according to Maimonides. Ew, I know) – but what this is really about is an adult version of “girls have cooties,” which “good” religious girls are expected to internalize.
That said – it’s her body. Her hand. Her choice. It doesn’t matter what I, you, anyone thinks. It doesn’t matter that most rabbis who insist on “negiah” also insist that a woman shouldn’t sing to men (or more importantly, that men shouldn’t hear a woman singing, since as the sages put it: “Voice in a woman is like nakedness.”) It doesn’t matter that some geniuses dug up a picture of Dayan hugging singer Shlomi Shabbat (not her father, husband, son, or even sibling) in a decidedly negiah-violating manner. That was 2 years ago, she got more religious since. Biden’s hand was all clammy and she was squeaked, she had a rash – what the fuck ever was her reason.
That of course didn’t stop too many people wasting too much energy condemning her, but it gets worse – she says she told the production team throughout the week preceding the incident that she don’t shake no men’s hands. President’s Residence department of ceremonies and protocol done fucked up here, it appears, and this is the only reason why anyone should care about the episode. I say “it appears” because while I take Ms. Dayan’s word for it, she did seem a bit too prepared and eager for the noise that followed. Anyway, folks were talmbout that, even made the press back in the States, I hear tell.
From there Biden continued to Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem, for the opening ceremony of the Maccabi Games – basically the Jewish Olympics, and a thing (like too many) that was a whole lot more relevant when I was a kid. Anyway, as my man’s motorcade is snaking its way up the mountain to Jerooz, there was a power outage at the stadium, and I thought I was seeing a hit attempt unfold on live TV. But no, just typical Israeli incompetence. They got the power back up in 15 or so, but it was a bad look. You ain’t got backup power for an event of that magnitude, attended by the mf’ing POTUS?
The next day Biden, a good Christian man, went to Bethlehem to visit the Church of the Nativity, and thence to Ramallah, to meet the figurehead of the Paltustanian Authority[TM]. He and Abbas couldn’t come to an agreement about the wording of a joint statement, so they made separate summary remarks. Biden repeated his theoretical allegiance to the two-state-solution, while again (as at the airport) acknowledging that there isn’t any chance right now of restarting actual negotiations to get there. He visited a Palestinian hospital in East Jerusalem (unattended by any Israeli, which annoyed Israel but at least that much he was able to insist on), and announced a cool third of a billion in various forms of aid (360M to be precise.) But he said nothing about the Palestinian core demands from Washington: Reopen the consulate in East Jerusalem, reopen the PLO’s offices in Washington, and remove the PLO from the terror organization list. Abbas, in his remarks, reiterated them.
From the PA Joe took off to Jedda, where he fist-bumped the man he was trying to ignore into oblivion, Muhammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. According to reports, Biden did pay lip service to human rights issues by starting the conversation with a question about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Y’all ‘member Jamal, right? He’s the Saudi national, forced into exile due to his critical coverage of MbS, who was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, and his body hacked up and stuffed in a suitcase.
MbS reputedly replied with “Dunno, what’s up with Shireen Abu Akleh?” before giving the matter lip-service, promising that “those involved” (excluding his order-giving ass, of course) will be “punished.” Abu Akleh, you may recall, is the Palestinian reporter who an official US examination concluded was “likely” killed by IDF fire (sorry, “fire coming from IDF positions”) – but despite not knowing for sure who killed her, and not having interviewed a single possible shooter, the American investigation also knew to tell us the shooting was “likely unintentional”. How does that compute? It doesn’t, and MbS, holding all the cards, wasn’t gonna pretend it does.
So yeah, Joey had little to say about human rights after that comeback. He also didn’t get any public commitment to up oil production (to counter the lost Russian supply and keep Europe heated next winter, so Europe stays solid against Russia) – although he “hinted” at private assurances (there’s an OPEC summit coming up next months and it’s possible MbS will give the WH what it wants without letting it appear like a snappy “yes suh, Massa!” when Daddy comes calling.) Meanwhile, the UAE backed out of the regional alliance Washington’s trying to build against Iran, saying it would rather “mend fences” with the Islamic Republic. Ouchie.
Back on the Israeli front – this visit by Biden, like his trip last week to Paris, were planned by and for the Bennett PM’s office, in the hopes of giving him a much-needed leadership boost. It was much needed, but happened so late, it was reaped by his successor and bro, Yair Lapid. This visit in particular was Lapid’s big chance to look “like a Prime Minister,” and although his success at this was partial – no gaffes or missteps, but also no “that was the moment he became PM” etc, – I think he handled it shrewdly. He knew that any attempt to produce such a “that’s the moment” effect was as likely to backfire as it was to succeed. So he chose the other route and used his big moment to show that he’s the sharing and respecting type. He insisted on giving Bennett his props – and never mind that it ended up increasing Bennett’s afterthought vibes; he took Gantz (Now leader of a list not that much smaller than Lapid’s party, and self-declared rival for the PM job) to Yad Vashem, and even made sure to give Bibi full props as Opposition Leader.
For all his TV prowess and vanity, Lapid knows he can’t compete with Bibi’s cult status as a genius master statesman, so making this moment all about himself would only lead to ridicule. Instead, he reminded all potential partners – those present and those watching at home – that under him as top dog, the other dogs still eat their fair share. He didn’t even have to spell it out – even Bibi’s staunchest allies know that his word ain’t worth shit and that no-one of skill and stature is allowed to grow under him. So Lapid’s score from this visit – despite the achievements on the Saudi front, which include the right to fly through the kingdom’s airspace and direct flights for pilgrims – is mixed. As my mainest man, former Consul General of Israel in NYC, and all-around sharp-eyed observer Alon Pinkas (@AlonPinkas on twitter. Follow him for sharp politics and sports banter) put it: MbS is the only winner from this visit.
So much for Joey’s Mideast Hike, which took up more wordage than I expected. So thanks for reading and check back shortly for part 3 of this week’s 3-part bonanza, which is all written up and is being formatted for your perusal. Thanks for flying the friendly Gangsta skies.
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1 Lapid, prior to entering politics, was known in the public’s imagination for two prominent traits: His perfectly coiffed and gelled hair (early in his political career many – your humble narrator included – enjoyed referring to him as “The Gel”. He smartly knocked that twee shit off upon entering politics, and has now entered solidly into silver fox territory.) The second trait is, well, dude’s seriously challenged in the verticality department, and I say this standing all of 5’7 (that’s 1.69 to you readers where the more sensible metric system rules.). There was/is often talk of him wearing lifts and standing on things behind podiums so his chin ain’t hanging off them. With these two facts in mind, the “If I had your…” exchange at least makes some sense, although Joey’s hair is fairly presidential, so….
2 Our president is a mostly ceremonial figure, whose only political relevance is to decide who gets the first crack at forming a coalition after elections. This was once rarely significant because it was obvious who had the best, and often the only chance to do so; but with the current political deadlock, it’s more important than it used to be. The President also holds the power of pardon, and many suspect that Herzog — a high powered corporate attorney when not in politics, who is the living embodiment of the big money-government-white collar crime nexus — will pardon Bibi even if he’s convicted in any of the three cases.
Welcome back to the Weekend Holyland Update, where we’re all about the upcomin’ Israeli e-lections number five, brought to you live and with plenty of drive from the southeastern melting pot of Tel Aviv. Today we have new revelations in the Famiglia Netanyahu’s bottomless, shameless greed, a joining of forces on the moderate right, mealymouthed whining on the left, and an empty suit in the middle, trying to grow into the position he has been methodically angling to achieve for a decade.
Starting with the most election-y news, remember how there used to be a bunch of parties bringing up the rear in the polls with the bare minimum of four seats? Well, as of this past weekend there is one fewer. “New Hope” headed by Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar (6 seats in the outgoing Knesset, 4 in recent polls), and “Blue and White” headed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz (8 seats in the outgoing, about the same in the current polls) have announced that they will be merging and running as a bloc, and explicitly declared Benny Gantz a candidate for Prime Minister. This would justify a raised eyebrow or two, what with the new party having only 14 seats in the outgoing, 3 behind PM Lapid’s Yesh Atid and 16 behind Likud (with the gap even larger in current polls). But after a year under a PM with only 6 fractious seats behind him, it sounds less outlandish. Oh, and interestingly – the new bloc did NOT vow not to sit with Netanyahu, unlike each of the constituent parties’ commitments before the last round.
What was immediately clear to me is that is that this union puts whatever is left of Yamina – outgoing PM Naftali Bennett’s party (which will be led by Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked and not Bennett, since he decided to sit this one out) – in a pretty rough spot. Let’s break the map of the Israeli right-wing down:
On the extreme right you have Religious Zionism (i.e. the Judo-Nazis), led by settlers Bezalel Smotrich (who hoarded over 150 gallons of gasoline to resist the 2005 disengagement from Gaza, but wisely chickened out of using them) and Itamar Ben Gvir (a senior Kahanist** who headed the violent hounding of murdered PM Rabin, once ripping the hood ornament from his car and boasting on national TV that “just as we got to the hood ornament, we can get to Rabin”). Yamina, whether under Bennett (a religious-lite person) or Shaked (secular) is on the complete opposite end of the right-wing spectrum, representing moderates, both religious and secular, not dyed-in-the-wool Nazis. So unless a body was severely radicalized over a year, they ain’t gonna jump ship straight from Yamina to the Nazis, nor vice-versa unless they were suddenly cured of the Nazi disease.
So what remains on the right is of course the mothership of Likud, the two Ultra-Orthodox parties (whose electorates, like that of the Nazis, are mutually exclusive with Yamina), and finally the two that just declared a joint run – whose electorates ARE fungible with that of Yamina.
So Ms. Shaked has to offer right-wing voters, who are relatively moderate and fed-up with Bibi’s corruption and Likud’s gutter populism, something that a much surer bet isn’t. Now that the new bloc refrained from declaring allegiance to the principle of “Never Bibi” – even the ones who want “Soft right that will likely sit with Netanyahu if that’s the coalition to be made” have a better option. While Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton (of the larger Blue and White part of the merger) has declared that the unified list won’t sit with Netanyahu – she ain’t calling the shots, so that’s of limited import.
What is of some horse-race import is that the post-merger polls are in, and while the new merger gets a modest bump over its combined strength in prior polls, and so does Yesh Atid, it does not look good for Bibi – and it looks really bad for Ayelet Shaked and Yamina.
(Previous in parentheses) Likud 34 (34), Yesh Atid (Lapid) 23 (21) the new merged Blue-and-White-New-Hope 14 (12 combined), Judo-Nazis 10 (10), Sephardic Ultra-Orthodox 8 (8), Ashkenazi UO 7 (7), Joint List (most Arab parties, running together as a bloc) 6 (6), Israel Beiteinu (mostly older Russian-speakers and fools who like a corrupt “strongman”) 5 (5), Labor 5 (5), United Arab List (Moderate Islamists, were in the “change coalition”) 4 (4), Meretz 4 (4). Missing cause they ain’t make the cut in the new landscape: Shaked’s Yamina, polling at around 2% (out of the required 3.5% threshold.)
Blocs according to this poll and basically all post-merger polls: Bibi’s bloc: 59. Anyone-but-Bibi Bloc: 55. Holding the key for the latter: the Joint List with 6.
Now, there’s a supposed heavyweight free-agent left unsigned in the market. And you’ll never believe it, not in a million years – It’s a general! A Former IDF Chief of Staff! Ainchy’all shocked, now? Tell the truth.
The new savior, courted by both the new merged party and Lapid’s Yesh Atid, is the umpteenth iteration of the “level-headed and devoted to the public good,” steely-eyed but warm-hearted*** military man. This one’s name is Gadi Eisenkot, predecessor to the current occupation-thug-in-chief. According to the polls, he’ll add around two seats to whoever he joins. According to one poll, if he joins the new merger under his own predecessor in the army, Benny Gantz, he’ll add a whopping three seats, and – this is the important part – one of them at the direct expense of the Likud bloc.
In other electoral news, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz has announced that he will not run to lead Meretz again (though he will likely run for a spot in the party’s list for Knesset.) This leaves MK Yair Golan, a former IDF General, as the only current contestant for the job, after former leader and Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg also said she won’t be running for the top spot this time. Golan is uniformly detested by much of the party’s base, not just for being former IDF, but for being a bumbling he-man ass who is totally out of step with the party’s sensibilities and positions on most issues.
Example? Why, he just provided one this week, and it’s a beaut. “I think being called a “lefty” (“smolan” from the Hebrew “smol” – left) is a slur. It’s like being called a n—-r.” (yes, dumbfuck said that. I know. I just don’t have enough melanin to properly give this man the side-eye that conveys “boy, if you don’t sit yo ass down and stfu…” and actually makes him do it.)
The only reason he was elected on the party’s ticket is another pathetic attempt to shore up security cred for a party that will NEVER have enough of that to people who fret about it. His only saving grace is that he’s willing to brawl with the right and punch them in the mouth – but in the name of what? Shame in being a lefty? Say it loud, boy – I’m left and I’m proud. Of course, these episodes only serve to whip up victimization frenzy on the right. “Didja hear what that white privileged lefty sombitch saaaaaiiiiiid????!!!!!!”
Way I read it, unless a REAL lefty shows up and sweeps the Meretz party faithful up in a whirlwind of conviction and enthusiasm, the only prayer Meretz has with General Golan as a standard-bearer is to join forces with Labor, as it did in round 3 of this prolonged paralysis. Problem is that previous merger yielded disappointing returns and Labor, currently sitting “pretty” at 6, so not actually on the precipice of electoral doom, ain’t eager for the match. “Been there, done that, even the t-shirt sucked” is the vibe coming from the sad vestiges of the party that built this country.
I know, the subtitle promises juicy corruption stuff – not to mention promising a Weekend Holyland Update – but life itself and a summer bug (which hatched for a week, just making me cranky and low energy, before erupting ferrealz with the sniffles and fever ‘n shit) have conspired to delay. Which is good cause that way we got the post-merger polls in time, and Horowitz’s resignation, and…. So lemme post this for the horserace followers, and then I’ll do a part 2 about the defendant’s trial and other stuff, including Joey’s Needless Holyland Adventure. Thank you for flying the Gangsta skies.
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*(marble-jawed, blue-eyed former IDF Chief, and perfect illustration of the old saying – tie a donkey to the “shin-gimel” (the guard post at the gate of a military base) and he’ll make Colonel eventually. So he stayed even longer and made alla way it to the top. Still unimpressive as a pile of warm shit.
** Meir Kahane was the original Judo-Nazi, running for Knesset in the 1980s on a platform of proposed legislation that is 1:1 the Nazi Nuremberg Laws, with just the identity of the master race changed. He was eventually banned from running for overt racism. Ben-Gvir is a long-time disciple of that scumfuck rat. How come he’s allowed to run, then? Cause people are crazy and times are strange.
*** Said donkey from footnote 1 is a bit deficient in the projecting of warmth department, so the role needs to be split.
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